Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs? Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker quantitative trader before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and mostly practical problems with probability. This book is not yet featured on Listopia. The book is a treasure trove if you are a quizzer.
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Each of her words is weighed out as if on a spoon hanging from the edge of a cliff face in Norway. Indeed, the more you know, the larger the rows of unread books. Withoutabox Submit to Film Festivals. He is a researcher, essayist, trader, epistemologist, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life. No eBook available Amazon. Set up a giveaway. He is the owner of a large personal library containing thirty thousand booksand separates visitors into npir categories: He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresenting real risk potentials.
My library Help Advanced Book Search. The author corroborates his line of thoughts by claiming that categorizing always produces reduction in true complexity. The converse is also true—if you find what he has to say simple or obvious, then you are probably reading too shallowly. Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents Paperback: Read, highlight, and take notes, across web, tablet, and phone. If we create the rules, this does not mean that they are absolutely true, not does this limit our continuous hunger for education.
A Black Swan is an unexpected event with a major impact. His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact.
More, I like the ideas. Get to Know Us. We like stories, we like to raleb, and we like to simplify; i. The book is written with the snarky smug attitude of someone who has been repeatedly slighted by people whom he considers intellectually inferior. The style will either excite or turn off the reader. If he is right, almost all our statistical tools are obselete [or] meaningless. The importance to the general public of having a better understanding of the true risks in our world, especially in financial matters, is now readily apparent since the economic collapse, which Taleb accurately predicted in this book published in Shopbop Designer Fashion Brands.
I disagree with his notion joir all-stupid-economics, as there are some highly educated and not only in statistics economists who use the sociological aspect of the issues at hand and who see the problems ahead. Walaubagaimanapun, saya menangguhkan dahulu beberapa perkara -beliau sendiri menganjurkannya- untuk disemak semula.
For the rest of us, the cost of this book will be a much lower tuition than we might have to pay learning the lessons first hand. Related Articles
A comme "Annus Coronavirus" ou l'envol du Cygne noir
JoJojora After a takeb decades, most science fiction just seems silly, because they got everything wrong. Maybe I will start again where I left off after reading some good books. Try the Kindle edition and experience these great reading features: If it turns you off, try to work through it. One snarky comment, if I may. He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresenting real risk potentials. He convincingly reveals a sound foundation for a structure of thought that for me has been mostly a mist shrouded vision, perhaps even disconnected structures. Very subtly, Taleb explods the myth, which the Wall Street has been propagating since ages, with the use statistics, bell curves and Black-Scholes theory to sell portfolio allocation.
The Black Swan – La Puissance de l’imprévisible
Nassim Nicholas Taleb : Le Cygne noir – La puissance de l’imprévisible